Friday, January 11, 2019

Welp, that was quick - new balance - negative $246

So, sat down at a $1/$2 $300 max buy in 9 person table - two big stacks, lots of phone activity, one person with a partner standing behind him and talking in Chinese... (needless to say, my concerns about cheaters were heightened)

Big stack guy seems to be a table bully - some folks (stupidly) sit down and buy in at $60 or $100 with him sitting there with $700 or so.

Don't get a single hand better than A/4 offsuit for a little bit - so I toss most everything back in including few limps or what not - a couple players also straddle regularly, including the big blind - I'm down to around $290

I also switched chairs to get away from the big stack a bit, as he was aggressive and pushing people to early decisions.

The hand I played

So, I'm sitting with 7/8 offsuit in $2 big blind and a straddle to $4 behind me - big stack raises him to $15, one call, comes to me and I toss in another $13 - straddle folds.

Flop comes 7/9/10 with two clubs - I quickly bet roughly the pot - at $50

Big stack thinks, plays with chips, then re-raises to $100 (see note 1 below) - other player folds.

I quickly go all in with what turns out to be about another $179 into a $246 pot

He dances and plays around forever asks for several counts - plays with my chips, etc - and finally calls

Final two cards come garbage garbage and I turn over my pair of 7's, and he turns over a pair of Q's to take it and shut me down.

Flop play and my thoughts:

Both big stack and the other player are projecting strength with a raise and call on a 9 player table.

I'm limping in projecting garbage.

The flop hits me.

My bets indicate that the flop hit me big. Trip 7's is a possibility. The nut flush is a possibility with the two clubs.

My bets were overbets precisely to indicate this and precisely to attempt to drive him out of the pot and win $46, or, with the all in - $146

I was betting to drive him out if he was on a good flush draw and also with the strong possibility that the flop missed him.

So he did one of two things - he either read me without me playing any hands - or he made a bad decision to raise my $50 bet.

With Q's and 7/9/10 with two clubs, he only has two outs - the two Q's or runner runner flush or runner runner straight.

In short, he's got a roughly 10% chance to make the best hand vs me projecting a very strong hand. 

To counter that - except for the A/8 of clubs or A/* of clubs, I've got 10 outs to get the best hand. two 7's, four 6's, four J's - a 40% chance to make the best hand.

If our positions were reversed the odds were in my favor, if he was betting and I was calling - the odds were in my favor to call his bets.

But his calls - particularly the $50 call - were either hubris, a read on me, or bad calls.